Integrity: I know when I see it

Mayan riviera coral reefs - sample of iNaturalist observations

Integrity: You don’t know what you have until you lose it

Examples of global and local ecosystem collapse: Aral Sea, Cloud forest, Kelp forest, Arid shrublands

Examples of global and local ecosystem collapse

Diagnose

A schematic of mountain glacier ecology, hydrology and geomicrobiology. From Hotaling, Hood, and Hamilton (2017)

Diagnose

G clusterBio clusterIce Ice clusterMelt Meltwater clusterMB AE1 Snow fall AE2 Temperature AP1 Ice accumulation AP2 Ice ablation AE1->AP1 AE2->AP2 AE3 Radiation AE3->AP2 AE4 Light absorbing particles AE4->AP2 AE5 Wind AE5->AE4 BP1 Propagules AE5->BP1 BP2 Windfall AE5->BP2 CB2 Endoglacial biota AP1->CB2 CB3 Subglacial biota AP2->CB3 CB4 Proglacial water AP2->CB4 CB5 Forefield biota BP1->CB5 CB1 Supraglacial biota BP2->CB1 CB1->CB2 CB1->CB5 CB2->CB3

Conceptual ecosystem model for a tropical glacier ecosystem: Properties

Diagnose

G clusterBio clusterMelt Meltwater clusterIce Ice clusterMB AE1 Snow fall AE2 Temperature TR3 Climate change AP1 Ice accumulation AP2 Ice ablation AE1->AP1 AE2->AP2 AE3 Radiation AE3->AP2 AE4 Light absorbing particles AE4->AP2 AE5 Wind AE5->AE4 BP1 Propagules AE5->BP1 BP2 Windfall AE5->BP2 CB2 Endoglacial biota AP1->CB2 CB3 Subglacial biota AP2->CB3 CB4 Proglacial water AP2->CB4 TR1 Air Pollution TR1->AE4 TR3->AE1 TR3->AE2 TR3->AE3 CB5 Forefield biota BP1->CB5 CB1 Supraglacial biota BP2->CB1 CB1->CB2 CB1->CB5 CB2->CB3

Conceptual ecosystem model for a tropical glacier ecosystem: Causes vs. symptoms

Diagnose

G clusterBio clusterMelt Meltwater clusterIce Ice clusterMB IN1 Bioclimatic variables AE1 Snow fall IN1->AE1 AE2 Temperature IN1->AE2 TR3 Climate change IN1->TR3 IN2 Snowline and other indicators IN3 Mass balance IN2->IN3 AP1 Ice accumulation IN3->AP1 AP2 Ice ablation IN3->AP2 AE1->AP1 AE2->AP2 AE3 Radiation AE3->AP2 AE4 Light absorbing particles AE4->AP2 AE5 Wind AE5->AE4 BP1 Propagules AE5->BP1 BP2 Windfall AE5->BP2 CB2 Endoglacial biota AP1->CB2 CB3 Subglacial biota AP2->CB3 CB4 Proglacial water AP2->CB4 TR1 Air Pollution TR1->AE4 TR3->AE1 TR3->AE2 TR3->AE3 CB5 Forefield biota BP1->CB5 CB1 Supraglacial biota BP2->CB1 CB1->CB2 CB1->CB5 CB2->CB3

Conceptual ecosystem model for a tropical glacier ecosystem: Indicators

G GCM Climate models PUB3 Braun and Bezada 2013 GCM->PUB3 PUB6 CHELSA Karger et al. 2017 GCM->PUB6 PUB7 GCM + SSP GCM->PUB7 GIS1 Cartography field measurements and lit. review PUB1 Ramirez et al.2020 GIS1->PUB1 PUB4 Polissar et al. 2006 GIS1->PUB4 RS Remote sensing products RS->PUB1 PUB5 Hybrid models Rounce et al. 2023 RS->PUB5 PUB2 RGI v6.0 RS->PUB2 FIELD Field sampling PUB8 Llambí et al. 2021 FIELD->PUB8 PUB9 Ball et al. 2014 Balcazar et al., 2015 Rondón et al., 2016 FIELD->PUB9 data Glacier extent temp. series PUB1->data FLH Freeze level height (as plotted) PUB3->FLH ELA Equilibrium line altitude PUB4->ELA plant Plant and soil data PUB8->plant microb Microbial composition PUB9->microb mass Mass balance + Glacier dynamics model PUB5->mass pols Glacier outlines PUB2->pols GBM Gradient Boosting Machine PUB6->GBM PUB7->PUB5 PUB7->PUB6 model Generalised Linear Model data->model A13 Ice extent for whole range Historical reconstruction and present day 1910-2019 data->A13 pols->PUB5 pols->GBM C3 ELA two regions Historical reconstruction 1820-2006 ELA->C3 loess digitized + LOESS regression FLH->loess D Change in two communities Insuficient temporal data for analysis plant->D microb->D E Ice volume for whole range Future projections 2000-2100 mass->E A2 Ice extent for whole range Future projections 1998-2048 model->A2 C1 FLH for three peaks Historical reconstruction 1960-2010 loess->C1 C2 Bioclimatic suitability map Future projections 2010-2070 GBM->C2

Bioclimatic suitability

Histogram of present conditions of two bioclimatic variables in the Cordillera de Mérida and two neighboring regions. We considered 19 variables for 12 regions.

Bioclimatic suitability

Plot of initial (\(V_{0}\)) vs. final values (\(V_{F}\)) for the Ruwenzori mountains in Uganda: expected declines in suitability.

Ice mass balance model

Estimated ice mass in Megatonnes for Kilimanjaro. Points represent the sum of median ice mass for each outline, and the grey bars represent the uncertainty (\(\pm\) median absolute deviation).

Relative severity

Plot of initial (\(V_{0}\)) vs. final values (\(V_{F}\)) for the Ruwenzori mountains in Uganda: introducing a decision thresholds for suitability.

Relative severity

Range standardisation of observed changes \(\mathrm{RS} = \frac{V_{0} - V_{F}}{V_{0} - V_{C}}\)

Relative severity

Range standardisation of observed changes \(\mathrm{RS} = \frac{V_{0} - V_{F}}{V_{0} - V_{C}}\)

Relative severity

Time series of RS values for the ice mass indicator variable for the tropical glaciers of Kilimanjaro using 2001 as initial value. Best estimate and uncertainty interval.

Extent of decline

Histogram of the \(RS_{cor}\) values for the Tropical Glacier Ecosystem of the Cordilleras Norte de Peru using the maximum accuracy threshold.

Extent of decline

Comparing the histogram of the \(RS_{cor}\) values with a modified empirical cumulative distriution function for the Tropical Glacier Ecosystem of Cordilleras de Colombia using the maximum accuracy threshold.

Extent of decline

Indicator selection principles

  1. Understanding causes and symptoms

  2. Properties and processes of target ecosystem type

  3. Scalar, temporal and spatial component

  4. Measurable thresholds of change

  5. Estimates based on spatial data, inferences or expert knowledge

Multiple indicators

Spoilt for choice? what to do with multiple indicators

  1. Clear relationships between them: independent indicators or combined indicator ?

  2. Preference for direct indicators of symptoms

  3. Cover as many dimensions as possible but avoid redundancy

  4. Explicit rules for combination